No Nukes in Iran – Another Low Hanging Fruit?
What is said by the talking heads may or may not be utter garbage, with about 50% probability, regardless of which side they are on at the time.
If one recalls some of the allegations made by the U.S. Government against Saddam Hussein and his alleged Weapons of Mass Destruction programme, then it is no surprise that all the recent huffing and puffing about Iran’s nuclear weapons capability is similarly without merit and substance, as reportedly said by Dennis Blair, new US intelligence chief, in his comments to the Senate Intelligence Committee.
Although we do not know whether Iran currently intends to develop nuclear weapons, we assess Tehran at a minimum is keeping open the option to develop them. … US intelligence assesses that Iran does not currently have a nuclear weapon, and does not yet have enough fissile material for one
Just recapping some of what has been said on the topic purporting the existence of an Iranian nuclear weapons programme:
In 2005 it was alleged that Iran had been building a secret network of underground tunnels in order to manufacture and store nuclear weapons. Admittedly this came from Alireza Jafardazeh, who would is about as opposed to the Iranian government as anyone can get, yet his opinion was given great prominence at the time. What he said then has proven to be crap. So what about all the other things he alleged, such as Iran’s role in supporting the Iraqi insurgency? True or not, it would seem that this man is far too complex to take seriously.
In a very interesting statement, back in 2002, a Russian general stated that Iran already has a nuclear bomb.
Iran does have nuclear weapons … Of course, these are non-strategic nuclear weapons. I mean these are not ICBMs with a range of more than 5,500 kilometers and more. But as a military man, I see no danger of aggression against Russia by Iran. As for the danger of Iran’s attack on the United States, the danger is zero”
In 2003, the Time Magazine hinted at Iran’s nuclear ambitions. This was shortly before the US invasion of Iraq.
In 2006 The Guardian reported on an assessment by European intelligence agencies:
The assessment declares that Iran has developed an extensive web of front companies, official bodies, academic institutes and middlemen dedicated to obtaining – in western Europe and in the former Soviet Union – the expertise, training, and equipment for nuclear programmes, missile development, and biological and chemical weapons arsenals.
And the spin was still going at full bore in late 2008 at the New York Times:
“They clearly have enough material for a bomb,” said Richard L. Garwin, a top nuclear physicist who helped invent the hydrogen bomb and has advised Washington for decades. “They know how to do the enrichment. Whether they know how to design a bomb, well, that’s another matter.”
Yet now we see that it was probably all bluff. The US, it now seems, knew all along that Iran was miles away from making “the Bomb”, but it was politically expedient to paint the opposite picture at the time. It was noticeable how the language of reporting has changed on the topic as well. The public has already been conditioned to equate the term “nuclear Iran” with “the Bomb”, yet “nuclear Iran” is no different to “nuclear Germany” in that both have nuclear power stations.
Is this new admission believable? The US doesn’t look like it wants war with Iran just now. It does seem that things haven’t quite been going according to plan lately with regards to the economy and military. Major events are happening off schedule and the invicible ones are suddenly appearing rather weak.
It’s probably true that Iran has no nuclear weapons. Could we be having another Peace Crisis? We all know that can’t last for long. What are governments going to do with all the unemployed? In the past they managed to get rid of quite a few of them by sending them to the Front. The answer will probably come sooner rather than later.