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No Hope, Only Certainty for World Economy

The Deluge - Paul Gustave Doré

The Deluge - Paul Gustave Doré

The past week saw some important stories break on the mainstream media, including revelations of an explosion in funding of intelligence services in the UK, which reportedly are poorly run, targeting the innocent more often than the guilty. Clearly, the perception of the British Government is that the massive funding boosts are necessary in anticipation of coming major developments around the world.

We found out this week that those calling the latest stock market rise a “sucker’s rally” were right. The pessimists are back in business, with predictions of a fall in the Dow Jones Index to 2,000. It’s a big deal, as the conditions for such a fall in stocks are unlikely to be imaginable for most Americans, even now. Yet two groups in America are conscious of the possibilities: the Government (which has been quietly expanding its prison system and domestic law enforcement) and civilians who are arming up and buying ammunition. But to say that this is merely an American problem would be very narrow minded. Indeed, some of the greatest shifts in economies around the globe are outside the US, such as Japan, having just recorded a record 4 percent contraction in the first three months of 2009.

To that end, the week also marks the shift away from the US currency by Russia as a reserve currency, as well as moves in the same direction by China, a thing that in the past has triggered wars:

In a G2 world (the United States and China), he who is the piper calls the tune, and China holds a US$2-trillion mortgage on the United States and is not happy. This country, along with others that lend money to the United States, such as Saudi Arabia, will determine the value of the U. S. dollar and gold. And they have spoken. They are not buying more U. S. treasuries and are buying gold as a new asset class.

It’s estimated (by John Ing) that the gold price will reach US $9000, which is not a reflection of a meteoric rise in the value of gold, but a total debasement in the value of the American economy. The unmentioned and possibly unmentionable thing in all this is that such a debasement in US currency cannot occur without a significant change in the global military balance. Indeed, if this change is not taken into account, assessments tend to conclude that China (and others) will not recover quickly to take the global lead away from the US. The same degree of extreme economic instability is forecast (and is already coming) for the UK (and other first world countries), although it will likely take different forms. The interesting thing is that talk of conspiracies of world government and globaly tyranny, once only conducted in hushed tones by people suspected of having paranoid delusions, is now the stuff of the regular press, making simple arithmetic easier than ever. Perhaps this is because the notion of coming social upheaval is now a foregone conclusion, making it an acceptable thing to discuss in the public arena.

On a cultural level, the undermining of British social structure appears to be complete, with the sexual equality war now having been lost well and truly in favour of Feminism, where it is reported that advertisers now consider mocking maleness as an advantageous strategy. The significance of advertising trends should not be underestimated, since it is one field where sciences of psychology and sociology are applied effectively, where the current status of a society is accurately assessed. It marks a total disorientation in British society from what could be termed a natural social order.

There is very little left in Western society that reflects the biological realities of being a human being. The lives of men and women are distorted, artificial, medicated. This false way of life guarantees their unhappiness and vulnerability to social pressures. As such, Western society is weaker than it was during the first Great Depression, which is likely to make matters much worse in coming years. Even if people woke up to these facts tomorrow morning, it would take generations for them to relearn what has been lost. It’s unlikely that this will occur, in any case. That particular civilisation has passed its turning point.

There isn’t much anyone can do now to avoid the problems which will arise in the next couple of years. If this were to be compared to the story of Noah and his Ark, then the time now would be that of the first rains of the coming deluge. That  said, the people of the world who have been quietly preparing themselves, mentally, spiritually, and materially, are in a position of great advantage. This “advantage” is not the kind that is understood by opportunists or materialists. Indeed, those who only view current events as a way to make some money are going to be rather surprised.

Lynching Loathsome, Licentious Loansharks

February 14, 2009 Leave a comment

Ship WreckThe Times Online expresses its fears of civil unrest in the United Kingdom arising from the ever escalating financial crisis. It’s all believable, what with a record budget deficit, collapsing exports, escalating unemployment, astronomical personal debt levels and the real possibility of further bank failures.

Some of the comments made to the original article point out what the public might be thinking:

Yes, we all hate bankers — but replace them with what? If the ideology of capitalism is discredited, the alternative — socialism — collapsed in 1989. So we are now left without any ideas at all. Which is why everyone is running around like headless chickens.

A narrow-minded comment, as there are surely more than two ideologies in the world. The ideology of capitalism is not discredited but would have been working perfectly had it been allowed to. If life were a game, then the reason why people are losing at it is because they weren’t told the rules and the others are cheating. The most likely mistake that people have made is to neglect the most basic question to ask when investing:

What is a risk, what is a gamble and what is plain stupid?

A risk is taken by an investor when he is certain of the maximum gain and maximum loss that may occur, that the benefit probably outweighs the potential loss, and is hopeful that he will get the maximum return. Any future investment plans are made, depending on their priority, on what is certain, probable or hopeful. In following this principle, the investor would have known not to trust “financial instruments” as a “certainty”, for example.

A gamble is taken when the investor considers the potential loss to be 100% (or has no idea), and believes that the maximum gain is probable (but he cannot quantify this probability). No risk vs. benefit analysis can be reasonably taken, no plans can be based on the projected outcome because there is nothing that can be done with zero money.

Plain stupid is the investor who thinks everything is a risk when most of the time it is a gamble. Banks were in a position of having so much money, so many people’s deposits, that they lost all sense of risk vs. gamble. They gambled all over the place. This has happened, particularly in the UK, because of the absence of a real meritocracy. Stupid people became CEO’s on the basis of club memberships and family associations. The same phenomenon exists all the way down the management chain. Arrogant and afraid of being shown up, the decision makers ignored sound advice, departed from concrete principles and sailed the navy of fools straight towards a reef.

The reason people are such suckers at this time is that they have too much faith and no Faith. The ancient wisdom contained in traditional religion would have saved the skins of many, had they applied it. Building a house on a rock is about more than architecture. Keeping one’s affairs tidy as though it were the last day has greater meaning than attending confession regularly and saying one’s prayers. The thought that God is watching our every thought and act is about more than the supernatural world. It is an aide to proper conduct in times of chaos and lawlessness. The prosperity of previous generations was built on this kind of sound reasoning.

In the absence of this time-proven wisdom, people turn to men in fancy suits for their dose of religion. Instead of believing in angels and saints (an altogether harmless undertaking) they believed in money and bankers. Instead of betting on real horses at the races, where one can at least take a bit of a look at the horse and see if it is limping or, perhaps not even a horse, they gambled on the hearsay of a financial advisor and his pie charts, bar graphs and trend analysis.

In any case, it’s all done now.

It would be nice if there wasn’t a bloody solution to all of this mess, but if people aren’t willing to turn away from the emptiness and the lies that got them to this point, then blood and death is the inevitable way out. The reason there is so little hope for the likes of the United Kingdom and the USA is that, by and large, people are not the decent sort that their grandparents were. They keep telling themselves that the reason their grandparents don’t swear but behave civilly towards each other is on account of their age. They don’t realize that it was because their grandparents were better cultured. And now the older generation is gracefully moving on.

The greatest pity is that the current generation has altogether broken its link with the past and remains adrift in a sea of lies with fools at the helm. A shipwreck is all that can come of it.